Be it a democracy or a dictatorship, governments are almost always changed by throwing out the incumbent. The former is called a democratic transition and the latter is inevitably a revolution. Even if it is, as usually is the case, more of the same. India’s electoral process that begins on April 19 will be concluded on June 4 when the results are announced. Most psephologists, commentators, astrologers and bazar gossips are sanguine that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be easily re-elected to a third successive term. I do not agree with that sanguinity.I think Mr Modi has a hard hill to climb and the slope may be too steep and slippery for him. Look at the objective reality. In 2019, the BJP won 303 seats or almost 56 per cent of the Lok Sabha with 37.4 per cent of the popular vote. This skew is how it usually is in a first-past-the-post system. Even a minority mandate translates into an overwhelming outcome. But the problem with the BJP mandate is that it is concentrated in a minority of states. The saffron mandate is restricted almost entirely to the large Hindi-speaking states (202/235), as well as Maharashtra (41/48) and Karnataka (25/28). It got 268 out of its 303 in just this concentration. Winning these states is not the issue for the BJP. Repeating this performance is.
