SCO’s Rising Stature: Impact on the Emerging Multipolar World

Event Summary:

The Peninsula Foundation (TPF) and Russian House, Chennai with the Consulate General of Russia, Chennai organised a panel discussion on “SCO’s Rising Stature: Impact on the Emerging Multipolar World Order”. The event began with a special address by the Consul General of Russia for South India, Mr. Oleg Avdeev, who provided a succinct brief of the SCO Summit where the Samarkand Declaration was signed. The panellists for the event were Major General Rajiv Narayanan AVSM, VSM (Retd), Dr. Ramu Manivannan, Vice President TPF, Dr. Utham Kumar Jamadhagni, Professor & Head, DODASS, University of Madras and Dr. Nansi Paulraj, Assistant Professor & Coordinator, Department of International Relations, Loyola College. Air Marshal M Matheswaran AVSM, VM, PhD (Retd) was the chair and moderator for the panel discussion. 

The Consul General of Russia for South India, Mr. Oleg Avdeev, in his special address covered the recent SCO Summit and provided a brief history of the SCO and its importance to Russia. The SCO’s prestige in international affairs is steadily rising and is currently the largest regional grouping in the world. Over half the world’s population live in SCO member states whose contribution to the world GDP is around 25%. There is great intellectual and technological potential and the SCO continues to grow as it takes up matters of both traditional and non-traditional security and works to provide solutions to these matters. 

Air Marshal Matheswaran set the context for the event by giving a brief overview of the SCO, arguing that a regional organisation like the SCO is important for the diversity of voices it comprises. With the growth of Asia and the shift of the economic centre of gravity to Asia, there has been a transition of power – politically, militarily, economically, and culturally. He observed that the modern nation-state, derived from the European Westphalian Territorial State concept, has been imposed on the rest two-thirds of the world as the norm, but this is incongruous with the Asian cultural milieu. The rising dissatisfaction with western norms and ideas manifests in the conflicts we see today.  He posed questions on the potential of the SCO to support the UN in global governance and what its rise means for the world along with organisations like BRICS, IORA, AIIB etc. to commence the panel discussion. 

Dr Ramu Manivannan traced the geopolitics of the Central Asian region, placing emphasis on what India could bring to the table when it takes leadership of the SCO in 2023. Recalling a statement made by President Putin in the 2000s about Russia, India and China being civilisational states, Dr Manivannan commenced his remarks with an overview of the non-alignment movement (NAM) and the influence it wielded in the 1960s. He stressed the fact that Asian leadership has a significant role to play in the SCO as he traced the history of the NAM losing influence and the emergence of the SCO. He said that the biggest turning point was the acceptance of the Eurasian corridor being a platform for multilateral politics. On India, he stated that the growing shift of power was the impetus for India to respond as we began moving closer to the US on nuclear issues. He reiterated India’s potential to play a greater role in multilateral organisations, citing that there exists no third view on the international political economy in the UN. On the SCO, Dr Manivannan emphasised the importance of the Central Asian countries and stated that new members would make the organisation more global. 

Dr Utham Kumar commenced by drawing attention to how the media covered the recent SCO summit, focusing more on bilateral meets between leaders rather than multilateral meetings. He specifically focused on the genesis of the SCO and the centrality of the Central Asian region. Bordering giants Russia and China as well as Afghanistan, Central Asia is geographically extremely significant. Today, it acts as a bridge between the East and West, home to vast deposits of natural resources, including energy. Being Islamic countries, the region’s primary concerns are terrorism, separatism, and extremism. These factors combined are why India has a vested interest in maintaining stability in the region. Dr Utham stated that even though India was late in recognising Central Asia’s value, we have finally “woken up”, citing how India hosted the heads of government of the SCO in 2020 and the recently organised India-Central Asia Summit in January of 2022. For India, the SCO is another forum, a more holistic one that has tremendous potential. Disaster management and mitigation, the International Solar Alliance are areas that India can look to build the SCO On the SCO, he discussed the rapid institutionalisation of the organisation and recent developments such as the introduction of the SCO Start-up on Innovation, the proposal for an SCO Bank, Consortium of universities etc. He observed how what was once a purely security-oriented organisation has transformed into a holistic one that discusses both traditional and non-traditional security and commented on how Traditional Medicine has been identified as an area for knowledge exchange. His conclusion observed the relevance of the SCO despite scepticism from the West as to its anti-West orientation. To this, Dr. Utham stated that just because the SCO is non-West does not mean it is anti-West.` 

Dr Nansi Paulraj covered the Russian perspective on the topic of discussion. She discussed the recent changes that have taken place since the Russia-Ukraine war began – a sharp rise in global defence expenditure, an ongoing refugee crisis, a food security crisis etc. The war has dismantled the European security architecture. The speaker pointed out how important every discussion in a multilateral platform has become significant for every country, particularly those in the Global South. A lot of the countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia have not made their positions clear and maintained a neutral stand even if personal sentiments might condemn Russian actions. But one fact most of these countries agree on is that they oppose the sanctions regime and advocate for neutrality. She attributed this world view to the dependence most of these countries have on Russia for energy, food, fertilisers, commodities, and defence equipment. Most of the countries consider Russia a more reliable partner; considering their colonial history and the number of interventions the West has carried out in countries like Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Lebanon etc. The US freezing Russia’s foreign reserves has made the others cautious and countries in the Global South are looking for new partners and moving towards trading with said partners in their domestic currencies. These countries are clear on their strategic choices and look to the SCO to work on these issues. She cites India as an example of being able to handle its partnerships. Having major agreements with the US, Russia, Central Asian countries, Iran etc. is a signal of the firm stance India’s foreign policy is adopting. The SCO serves as a platform for several of these Global South countries to come together.

Major General Rajiv Narayanan provided the China angle to the discussion and commenced his remarks by discussing the Kindelberger Trap. The theory states that if an extant organisation is on the decline and a new organisation emerging, if the latter does not step up to provide for global public goods the world will go into recession. He observed that the use of sanctions and financial institutions as tools of warfare has pushed the world into a global recession. There is no institution available today that can provide global public goods except India. India has provided support to the world during the pandemic as well as the Ukraine war and acted as a multilateral organisation. On SCO’s growing stature, the speaker questioned whether the organisation was able to provide for global public goods and commented that in this age of global interdependency there could be no true sovereign. With regards to the SCO, he posited that a platform other than the UN with no veto powers had to emerge to sort out bilateral issues in multilateral forums. China led the initiative for SCO. He observed that multilateralism was merely a stepping stone towards achieving the China Dream – being the sole superpower in the world by 2050. Major General Rajiv Narayanan noted that Xi Jinping’s ‘Middle Kingdom’ (centre of the earth) thought was a dangerous phenomenon for the world and agreed that the 20th National Party Congress on October 16 would be a turning point for the global world order. He also stated that the neighbourhood would need to be careful if Xi returns to full power as the Chinese economy is slipping. With a high dependency on exports along with a global recession and problems with the labour force, if the CCP feels their power slipping they tend to lash out to divert attention from its internal issues. He noted that in this regard India and Taiwan would need to watch out. The BRI, part of the Constitution, is also aimed only at rejuvenating the Chinese economy and not at the economic development of the region. the seven land corridors and one maritime corridor, along with the digital silk road in the BRI are cause for concern as they subscribe to Chinese standards and protocols. It is essentially a massive surveillance grid being pushed. He attributed Xi’s neighbourhood policy to the strategy of imitation in game theory and observed that Xi, essentially, wants his neighbours to follow his policies. The SCO’s agenda of combating terrorism, separatism and extremism is lifted from China’s concerns about its territory. His concluding remarks on the way ahead for the SCO was the suggestion to include Africa. With the addition of Africa, the balance would be restored. It would also counter the Atlantic Council and put a stop to the latter dictating terms for the rest of the world. He stressed the importance of adopting both continental as well as maritime mindset, citing the BRI as an example. His final remarks on the SCO were to develop a platform that addressed bilateral issues and step up to provide succour to the Global South.

Air Marshal’s concluding remarks observed how multilateralism has had a long history in Europe, going all the way back to the Napoleonic Wars where Britain, Russia and Prussia joined forces to maintain peace through a balance of power system, the Concert of Europe. By ensuring peace in Europe, Britain emerged as a leader and turned its attention to the rest of the world, to enlarge its colonial territories and thus unleash colonialism and imperialism on the world. Other powers like France, Germany, and Italy followed suit. However, Europe continued to maintain peace through this balance of power that lasted until 1914. The growing power of Germany and Italy created an imbalance that led to the First World War. Wilson’s League of Nations to bring peace post WW I failed when the US Congress refused to be a signatory to it, Japan attacked Manchuria despite the League voting for Japan to withdraw from the region and Germany’s actions that led to the Second World War. In the aftermath of World War 2, even in the bipolar world order and the UN, the US held greater power and provided for the reconstruction of Western Europe and Japan and emerged as a provider of global public goods. He commented that even in this period there existed multilateral cooperation between the US, USSR, and the rest of the world. However, the collapse of the Soviet Union plunged the world into a unipolar order. 

Hegemons as a rule go through cycles of peaks and falls and the US is no exception as we see it overstretching its resources for power and influence. This is, as Paul Kennedy establishes in his monumental study on ‘The Rise and Fall of Great Powers’, the classic ‘strategic overstretch’. With extensive military investments and more than 800 bases across the world along with its economic domination, it went from being a hegemon providing global public goods to demanding privileges for being a hegemon. The Air Marshal noted that this phenomenon was changing. As economies grow and more and more countries emerge stronger, signs of a truly multipolar world emerging is clearly visible. Organisations like the SCO can play a major role in this process by increasing trade, providing for political and economic security, technology development and inducting new members into its fold. He contrasted how institutions like the IMF are dominated by the US and Western Europe through a segregated voting system and control the loans it gives out, though there is no output to show for it.  In comparison, Chinese shadow institutions, despite all the risks associated with them, that invest in Africa and Asia have proof of building infrastructure to showcase. 

His final observation was that while there are fears that SCO and similar institutions dominated by China could be used to transform the global order into a Sino-centric order, India had the potential to leverage its position in the organisation and check Chinese ambitions to ensure SCO members work to support the emergence of a new world order that is equitable, fair, rational, and truly multipolar. India’s growth as an economic power and its stature as the Chair for 2023 could give it significant influence by supporting the growth of other Asian countries.

About the Consul General:

Mr. Oleg Avdeev
Consul General, Russian Federation in South India

Mr. Oleg was born on June 12, 1959. He graduated from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations in 1983. He is fluent in Hindi and English. Mr. Oleg has been in diplomatic service since 1983. He worked in various positions in the central office of the Russian Foreign Ministry and abroad. He served as the Consul General of Russia in Chittagong, Bangladesh from 2005 – 2009. He then served as the Head of the Department in the Second Department of Asia of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia from 2010 – 2011. He was the Deputy Director of the Second Department of Asia of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia from 2011 – 2013. Mr.Oleg then served as the Consul General of Russia in Karachi, Islamic Republic of Pakistan from 2013 – 2017. He is the Consul General of Russia in Chennai, India since September 12, 2018.

About the Panellists:

Dr. Ramu Manivannan
Vice President, Center for Democracy and Governance, TPF

Dr. Ramu Manivannan is the Vice President incharge of Publications & Institutional Partnerships and the Director for the Centre for Democracy & Governance in The Peninsula Foundation. He is a former Professor and Head of the Department of Politics & Public Administration, University of Madras. He was also the Chairperson for the School of Politics & International Studies, University of Madras. He had earlier taught in Hindu College, Delhi University before joining the University of Madras. He was a Fellow of the United Nations University, Tokyo, Japan. He was also the Director of the Centre for Dravidian Studies and Research, University of Madras.

He is a teacher-social activist engaged at the grassroots with human rights and other social movements in India/South and Southeast Asia. He has been working with the refugees from Tibet, Burma and Sri Lanka for over two decades in the areas of peace, education and development. He has been part of the development and implementation of the Basic Education Policy (BEP) of the Tibetan Government-in-Exile for over a decade. He is a Member of the Governing Board of the Sambhota Tibetan Schools Society of the Tibetan Government-in-Exile.

He founded fifteen non-formal schools for the children from tribal areas, stone quarry areas and the weavers’ community and also a school for poor children called “Garden of Peace” in the Vellore district of Tamil Nadu. Ramu Manivannan has also been the Visiting Professor at the Department of Southeast Asian Studies, University of Passau, Germany(2014), Department of Political Science, University of Paris, France(2016) and the Centre for International Studies, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan(2018). The Prof. is also the author of “Sri Lanka: Hiding the Elephant – Documenting Genocide, War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity”, Asia Future: Dialogue for Change (co-edited with Pracha Hutanuwatr).

Maj. Gen. Rajiv Narayanan AVSM VSM (Retd)
The Peninsula Foundation

Maj. Gen. Rajiv was commissioned in Dec 1978 in the Poona Horse. He retired after 37 years of distinguished service. He is an alumni of DSSC Wellington and DSCSC Mirpur, Dhaka. During his service, he commanded 16th Light Cavalry (one of the oldest Cavalry unit of India), 1stArmoured Brigade and 2 Mountain Division. Maj. Gen Rajiv is an expert in mechanized and mountain warfare and has seen service along India’s both Western and Northern Borders. Known within the Army fraternity as a cerebral General, he is an avid follower of International Relations & Geo-Politics for over two decades and has also been an avid China watcher since 1999.

He has had the opportunity to serve as the Defence Attaché in the Embassy of India Dushanbe, Tajikistan during the turbulent period post 9/11 from Oct 2003 to Mar 2007 and as the Additional Director General of Military Operations (B) for the last three years of his service.

His areas of interest areas include China, South and Central Asia, Indo -Pacific Region, and Future World Order & Regional Multilateralism. He has a large number of articles and papers published in Indian Journals and magazines (including web editions).

Dr. Utham Kumar Jamadhagni
Professor & Head, DODASS, University of Madras

Dr. Jamadagni is the Head in chair of the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, University of Madras. After earning a doctorate from the University of Madras, Dr Jamadagni received the Advanced International Diploma from the Dept. of Peace and Conflict Research at the University of Uppsala in Sweden. He has addressed and continues to address in Armed Forces Institutions like Defence Services Staff College, Wellington; National Defence College, New Delhi and Officers Training Academy, Chennai. His area of interest includes International Relations, Maritime Security, Conflict Analysis and Non-Traditional Security.

Dr. Nansi Paulraj
Asst. Professor& Coordinator, Dept. of IR, Loyola College

Dr. Nansi P. is an Assistant Professor and Head of the Department of International Relations, Loyola College, Chennai. She holds a PhD from the Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. She has published several research articles and book reviews, on India-Russia ties, Russian foreign policy, and the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. She was a scholar in residence at the Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia. She was also a scholar in residence at the Tehran University, Tehran, Iran. She has also been the recipient of the Indian Council for Social Science Research Fellowship for area study in Moscow.

About the Chair:

Air Marshal M Matheswaran AVSM VM PhD (Retd)
President, The Peninsula Foundation

Air Marshal M Matheswaran is an Indian Air Force veteran with 39 years of active service. He is the FounderPresident of The Peninsula Foundation, a policy research think-tank based in Chennai. He is a fighter pilot, an Experimental Test Pilot, and a Fighter Combat Leader, and has flown over 40 types of aircraft. He is an alumnus of IAF’s prestigious institutions, ASTE and TACDE where he was Commandant and Deputy Commandant respectively. The Air Marshal is also a graduate of the Defence Services College, Wellington and the National Defence College, New Delhi. He has held various operational and command appointments that include Senior Air Staff Officer of Eastern Air Command, Assistant Chief of Air Staff (Space), Air Officer Commanding (Maritime Air Operations), Principal Director (Air Staff Acquisition) and Director of Ops at the Strategic Forces Command.

The Air Marshal has a master’s in military science, M Phil, and a PhD in Defence and Strategic Studies from the University of Madras. He has a post-graduate diploma if financial management. He has done a Senior Fellowship in National and International Security from the Harvard Kennedy School of Governance, Harvard University. He has been an advisor to HAL, Cyient, and also as President, Aerospace Business in Reliance Defence. He continues to be involved in strategic consultancy in Defence and Aerospace.