Sri Lanka’s Economic and Political Crisis: Uncertain Future and its Regional Impact

Seminar Summary:

The Peninsula Foundation and Saveetha School of Law jointly conducted an international seminar on “Sri Lanka’s Economic and Political Crisis: Uncertain Future and its Regional Impact”.

The distinguished panellists were Mr. Mohan Guruswamy, Distinguished Fellow, TPF and former advisor to the Finance Minister, Dr. Ramu Manivannan, Vice President, TPF Centre for Democracy and Governance, Dr. Jehan Perera, Executive President, National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, Mr. N Sathiya Moorthy, Political Analyst and Commentator, Convenor- Policy Matters, and Ms. Minoli Wijetunga, Project Manager, Team Watchdog- Sri Lanka. The discussion was moderated by Dr. Mallika Joseph, Senior Fellow, Women in Security, Conflict Management and Peace (WISCOMP) and Visiting Fellow, Centre for Policy Research (CPR). The event was chaired by Air Marshal M Matheswaran AVSM VSM PhD (Retd.), President of TPF.

Air Marshal M Matheswaran commenced the event with his opening remarks explaining the background of the crisis in Sri Lanka, along with its political and economic dimensions. This was followed by a brief introduction of the distinguished panellists. The moderator initiated the discussion by commenting on the political changes happening everywhere around the world – legitimate, illegitimate, peaceful and violent. She mentioned the questions that were to be touched upon in the discussion: What is the significance of the current protests, what do they mean for Sri Lanka’s democracy and what are the key challenges the country can face in future. Dr. Manivannan, while providing a political and historical perspective, discussed the constitutional foundations of Sri Lanka. He further highlighted the current problems emanating from a lack of basic commodities in the country, including food, fuel and medicines, are being faced by the Tamils living in the north and east of the country for thirty five years, which went completely unnoticed. He, further criticising Sri Lanka’s divisive policies of the current Sri Lankan government, commented how the hate was being reverted back to them. While drawing comparisons between the Indian Constitution and Sri Lankan Constitution, he held the Indian Constitution in high regard for protecting India’s cultural, religious and linguistic diversity and criticised the Sri Lankan Constitution for not doing precisely that.

Dr. Jehan Perera began by saying “India is always in our thoughts”. He detailed the problems his country is facing, including the long queues for fuel, medicines and food. He termed the resignation of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa as the most unimaginable development. He points out that Sri Lankans knew money was being syphoned, but the majority were willing to overlook the commissions and the robbery due to the perception that the government was at least protecting the majority. He opined that the culture of impunity in the country has now been broken. The youth that form the majority of the protestors have a feeling that they have been tricked to get their votes, he opined. He further stated that in the Sinhala mindset, there has been a sense of historical insecurity. However, he states that suddenly there is a general sense prevailing that respects pluralism, human rights, tolerance etc. He concluded his remarks by stating his main takeaways from the crisis concerned the need for accountability, the need for replacing the Presidential System with Parliamentary one and the important role of the civil society.

Mr. Guruswamy provided a comprehensive economic perspective on the crisis and began his presentation by drawing parallels between India’s 1991 economic crisis and Sri Lanka’s current situation and stated that the lesson for governments and students in life is to “always have money in the pocket”. He remarked that Sri Lanka is presently in a situation where the IMF is dictating conditions set by the Washington consensus and invoked a famous banking adage – “countries don’t go under, they roll over”. Another important point made on international finance was that international finance worked on credit and that credit was based on trust. He commented that this was the reality Sri Lanka was now in wherein international creditors now do not trust Sri Lanka. His remarks on infrastructure investment were particularly illuminating; stating that short term borrowing for infrastructure development is a mistake. He was critical of the Sinhala elite on this matter. He mentioned that Sri Lanka’s problem is with its declining exchange rates and remittances and printing of money. Covid-19 and the Easter bombing heavily impacted the tourism industry. He also commented that Sri Lanka has always had a problem with India and listening to “good advice” from the “right Indians”. Mr. Guruswamy concluded his presentation by being appreciative of the support and aid the Government of India and the state of Tamil Nadu are providing to the Sri Lankan people.

Ms. Minoli Wijetunga commenced her remarks by contextualising the crisis. As per her, the participants of the protests come from all walks of life, and not just the youth as is often implied by the government. She points out the misconception that the ongoing protest is the longest peaceful protest in the country’s history. However, she emphasises the importance of the protest for having a tangible impact on the country’s politics. She mentions her own takeaways that includes learning at the protest sites where social workers, economists, students from all over the country gather and tell their part of the story. Her other takeaways are the disillusionment of the people with the political system and the overcoming of ethnic barriers which has become a common sight at the protests.

Mr. Sathiyamoorthy provided a detailed account of Sri Lankan politics and his perspective on the country’s future in his presentation. He posited that divisive forces in Sri Lanka have been at work since its independence and attributed this to them not having had a freedom struggle; unlike India where the Swadeshi idea took root. And apart from ethnic divisions, the country is deeply polarised – an urban-rural and rich-poor divide. He likened the Sinhala movement to a socialist/democratic revolution and remarked that it was in response to the Tamils holding most of the jobs at that point in time. Referring to Air Marshal M Matheswaran’s remarks on populist nationalism, he commented that the situation in Sri Lanka could also revive militant nationalism that was prevalent in the 60s, 70s and 80s. On political leadership, he remarked that the protestors do not have an identifiable leader for the government today or even tomorrow – their demand only limited to keeping the Rajapaksas out of power. There is a lack of clarity on the political and economic front. Taking Mahinda’s rise to power as an example, Mr. Sathiyamoorthy argues that it is “the man that matters, the position is incidental ”. He predicts Sri Lanka’s economic recovery to pre-covid level to take 10 years and puts the current situation to stabilise keeping all positive factors to take at least 3 years. On China the lesson for India is to invest in creating jobs for the local population as there have been no new jobs in Sri Lanka in the last 10 years. His other takeaways included India taking a holistic view of its neighbours’ economies and its impact in the neighbourhood and addressing fears that a situation similar to Sri Lanka might erupt in other states close to the country.

Following the conclusion of the panel discussion, the floor was open to questions. Some of the points raised by participants were on the timeline of Sri Lanka’s economic recovery, how the logistics of lines of credit function on cost and the role of Sri Lankan missions in the current crisis. On the role of Sri Lankan missions, Dr. Manivannan remarked that appointments have largely been from military backgrounds. There is a dearth of professionally trained diplomats. Mr. Sathiyamoorthy jumped in with his view and stated that the problem was the politicisation of bureaucracy.

Concluding remarks from all the panellists largely summed up their arguments. Speaking from an education and trauma perspective, Ms. Minoli posited that these have had a disruptive impact on each individual and states that the repercussions of this crisis will last for the next 10-15 years. Dr. Jehan remarked that his hope was that in the months to come – with the support of a populist government and a rational PM – there will be adequate space to undertake measures for economic recovery and address the ethnic divide. Dr. Manivannan concluded that it did not matter whether a country was socialist or communist, that at the end of the day governments needed to meet the demands of its people. Mr. Sathiyamoorthy remarked that Sri Lanka must begin work on its economy rather than address the political crisis that is being fueled by the protests.

About the Distinguished Panelists

Shri. Mohan Guruswamy

Governing Council Member and Distinguished Fellow, TPF

Former Advisor to Finance Minister

Shri. Mohan Guruswamy had his undergraduate education in Mathematics, Physics and Chemistry at Nizam College, Hyderabad, India. He has post-graduate qualifications in Public Policy, International Affairs and Management. He is an alumnus of the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University and the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University. With an interesting career path that included teaching, senior management, journalism and in government as the Advisor to the Finance Minister with the rank of Secretary to the Government of India, his astute analytical expertise is well known.

Shri. Mohan Guruswamy is widely travelled in India and abroad, and is the author of several books on policy issues. Some of the recent books are “The Looming Crisis in India’s Agriculture; India: Issues in Development”, India’s World: Essays in Foreign Policy and Security Issues”, “India China Relations: The Border Issue and Beyond” and the latest being “Chasing the Dragon: Will India Catch-up with China?”

He is a frequent commentator on national and international TV and Radio on matters of current interest and writes a widely read and disseminated newspaper and magazine column. His papers on Redefining Poverty, Income Inequality, Backwardness of Bihar, Economic Development in West Bengal, and FDI in Retail have been published in well-regarded journals like the Economic and Political Weekly, Seminar and the Journal of Public Policy, UK.

Dr. Ramu Manivannan

Vice President – Publications & Institutional Partnerships, TPF

Director – Centre for Democracy and Governance

Dr. Ramu Manivannan is the Vice President incharge of Publications & Institutional Partnerships and the Director for the Centre for Democracy & Governance in The Peninsula Foundation. He is a former Professor and Head of the Department of Politics & Public Administration, University of Madras. He was also the Chairperson for the School of Politics & International Studies, University of Madras. He had earlier taught in Hindu College, Delhi University before joining the University of Madras. He was also a Fellow of the United Nations University, Tokyo, Japan. He was also the Director of the Centre for Dravidian Studies and Research, University of Madras.

Dr. Ramu Manivannan is a teacher-social activist engaged at the grassroots with human rights and other social movements in India/South and Southeast Asia. He has been working with the refugees from Tibet, Burma and Sri Lanka for over two decades in the areas of peace, education and development. He has been part of the development and implementation of the Basic Education Policy (BEP) of the Tibetan Government-in-Exile for over a decade. He is a Member of the Governing Board of the Sambhota Tibetan Schools Society of the Tibetan Government-in-Exile.

He founded fifteen non-formal schools for the children from tribal areas, stone quarry areas and the weavers’ community and also a school for poor children called “Garden of Peace” in the Vellore district of Tamil Nadu. Ramu Manivannan has also been the Visiting Professor at the Department of Southeast Asian Studies, University of Passau, Germany(2014), Department of Political Science, University of Paris, France(2016) and the Centre for International Studies, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan(2018). The Prof. is also the author of “Sri Lanka: Hiding the Elephant – Documenting Genocide, War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity”, Asia Future: Dialogue for Change (co-edited with Pracha Hutanuwatr).

Dr. Jehan Perera

Executive Director

National Peace Council of Sri Lanka

Dr. Jehan Perera is the executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, an independent educational and advocacy organization focusing on peacebuilding and transitional justice across ethnic, religious and linguistic divisions. He is also a columnist for the Daily Mirror and the Lanka Monthly Digest in Colombo and writes for websites focussing on inter-ethnic reconciliation and peacebuilding. He is a supervisor to Masters degree students of faculty of graduate studies and visiting lecturer in Conflict and Peace Studies programme, the University of Colombo. 

Dr. Jehan acts as a resource person in community based transitional justice processes and preventing extremist violence involving capacity building of participants. He holds a Doctor of Law degree from Harvard Law School and a BA in economics from Harvard College. In April 2007 he received the Khwaja Moinuddin Chishti National Award for Peace, Tolerance and Harmony from the Interfaith Harmony Foundation of India.

Shri. N. Sathiya Moorthy

Political Analyst & Commentator

Convenor – Policy Matters

N Sathiya Moorthy is a veteran observer of the Sri Lankan scene, having personally interacted with all major stakeholders in that country for over two decades. He has been writing extensively on Sri Lanka’s domestic politics and the nation’s bilateral relations with India and multilateral ties, strategic outlook and the like.

A journalist for long years, Mr. Sathiya Moorthy, for over the last 20 years, was Head of the Chennai Initiative of Observer Research Foundation, the multi-disciplinary Indian public-policy think-tank, headquartered in New Delhi. Since his retirement in March of this year, he is the Convenor of Policy Matters-Chennai. His weekly columns on Sri Lanka have been appearing in two Colombo-based newspapers for over 15 years and also in a Tamil newspaper from Jaffna. He has also authored books, chapters and papers on Sri Lanka, Maldives and India-related topics, with particular reference to native Tamil Nadu.

Ms. Minoli Wijetunga

Project Manager

Team Watchdog – Sri Lanka

Ms. Minoli Wijetunga is the project manager at Team Watchdog. She is a University of Oxford alum where she read for a Master’s in Education funded through the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Development Office’s Chevening scholarship in recognition of her intersectional work in the field of education in Sri Lanka. Minoli works with the Department of Education, the University of Oxford on diversity and inclusion in higher education. She is also attached to the Digital Humanities Lab at the University of Colombo, Sri Lanka. 

Ms.Wijetunga is also in the leadership circle of Unconventional International, an initiative dedicated to the building of a community of young women investing in each other’s leadership and supporting one another to be catalysts for change in efforts towards peace and justice. Minoli has consulted as an education expert on different USAID projects including IREX’s project on battling misinformation in Sri Lanka. As an educationist focusing on context-sensitive education for the majority world, she has been published in local, regional, and international journals.

In-Chair:

Dr. Mallika Joseph

Senior Fellow, WISCOMP

Visiting Fellow, CPR

Dr. Mallika Joseph is a Senior Fellow at WISCOMP and Visiting Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research (CPR), New Delhi. Until recently, she served as Policy Adviser, and Regional Coordinator for the Asia Pacific at The Hague based Global Partnership for the Prevention of Armed Conflict (GPPAC). She is part of many global and regional networks working on the security sector, human security, countering violent extremism, conflict prevention, regional architectures and global governance.

President, The Peninsula Foundation (TPF)

Air Marshal M Matheswaran AVSM VM PhD (Retd)

Founder – President, The Peninsula Foundation

Air Marshal M Matheswaran is an Indian Air Force veteran with 39 years of active service. He is the founder- President of The Peninsula Foundation. He is the former Deputy Chief of Integrated Defence Staff responsible for Policy, Plans, and Force Development. The Air Marshal is an alumnus of IAF’s prestigious institutions ASTE and TACDE. He has extensive experience in operational and command appointments including being a founder-member of the Nuclear Command, Space Security, Electronic and Information Warfare, Maritime Air Operations, Acquisitions and Strategic Planning. As an Experimental Test Pilot he has been intimately involved in various research and development projects with the IAF, DRDO, and the Industry. He has made many classified studies and reports to the government on issues such as Kaveri engine, LCA, Missiles, and Aerospace Technology Strategy. 

The Air Marshal is a recipient of Presidential Awards – AVSM (Ati Vishisht Seva Medal) and VM (Vayu Sena Medal) and a Commendation by the Chief of Air Staff. He has a PhD in Defence & Strategic Studies from the University of Madras, Chennai, is an alumnus of the National Defence College, New Delhi and is a Senior Fellow in International and National Security from the Harvard Kennedy School.

About the Principal – Saveetha School of Law (SSL)

Prof. Dr. Asha Sundaram

Principal, Saveetha School of Law (SSL)

After obtaining her B.A. LL. B (Hons) from School of Indian Legal Thought, Mahatma Gandhi University, Kerala, Dr. Asha did her LL.M. from School of Legal Studies,  Cochin University of Science and Technology with a specialisation in Criminal Law, Constitutional law and Jurisprudence. She cleared the National Eligibility Test for Lectureship (NET) conducted by UGC in 2001. She did her doctoral studies at the JJT University, Rajasthan in Health Care Law titled ‘Legal and ethical issues on medical research involving human beings in India’. 

She has taught law at the School of Legal Studies, Kannur University, School of Legal Studies of Cochin University of Science and Technology, School of Indian Legal Thought, M.G University, Parvin Gandhi College of Law, SVKM, Mumbai, School of law Rights and Constitutional Governance, TISS, Mumbai, School of Legal Studies Central University of Kerala and in SNGCLS Kollam before Joining Saveetha School of Law. She has practised at the High Court of Kerala. 

She has organised several National and International Conferences, Seminars and Workshops. She has presented papers at National and International Conferences and also published articles in reputed journals. She is a member of the Global Alliance for Justice Education (GALE) and the World Commission on Environmental Law ( WCEL). Her areas of interest include Health care laws,  Environmental Law, Criminal Law and Constitutional Law.

About the Director of Academics – SIMATS

Deepak Nallaswamy Veeraiyan

Professor & Director of Academics, SIMATS

Dr. Deepak Nallaswamy has authored and published two editions of the bestselling “Textbook of Prosthodontics” which is considered the definitive textbook for prosthodontics by clinicians across the country. He completed his Master’s program in Prosthodontics (MS. Prosthodontics) at the University of Toronto, Canada during which time he served as a Clinical Demonstrator and was awarded the ‘Best teacher’ and ‘Most Motivating Teacher’ awards by the University of Toronto. He is an avid researcher with a keen, analytic mind which has helped him design and guide a variety of research projects with his team. He has over 50 research papers in his academic portfolio. He has also completed the Management Development Program at Harvard University, Boston, USA. 

Dr. Deepak Nallaswamy singlehandedly spearheaded the implementation of sophisticated devices such as CADCAM machines and 3D printers in the Department of Prosthodontics in Saveetha Dental College to aid in research and to develop newer and more efficient protocols for treating patients. His clinical interest is “Prosthognathics”, a combination of Orthognathic surgery and Prosthodontic techniques to manage Full-Arch restoration cases with Aesthetic deficiencies. He is also known for his prowess in advancing Dental Education through the implementation of MILA (Multiple interactive learning algorithms) in Saveetha Dental College, for which he was awarded the “Best Pioneer in Dental Education” at the World Dental Congress held in London in April 2017.

Faculty Co-ordinator

Dr. T. C. Karthikheyan

Associate Professor of Politics & IR, Saveetha School of Law (SSL)

Dr. T. C. Karthikheyan obtained his M.Phil. & Ph.D. in International Relations from Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi. Earlier, he had completed his M.A. in Political Science from Madras Christian College (MCC), Chennai and his graduation is in B.Com. He has cleared his UGC-NET examination in both Political Science, and also in International & Area Studies. While in Delhi, he had worked in various Think Tanks & Research Institutes, notably in Institute for Conflict Management and National Maritime Foundation (a Research Think Tank of Indian Navy) in the capacity of Research Associate. 

Dr. T. C. Karthikheyan has a decade of teaching experience behind him teaching Political Science & International Relations to young and bright minds from SRM Institute of Science & Technology (SRM University), Chennai, Pondicherry Central University, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu Open University, Chennai and Gandhigram Rural University (A Central University), Dindigul. He has published numerous research papers/articles in reputed peer-reviewed journals at National and International levels. He has contributed many papers in edited volumes of books that are published by reputed national and international publishers. 

Organising Committee:

TPF – Professor Ramu Manivannan (Vice President and Director – Democracy & Governance), Brigadier Albert Pakianathan (Director – Research Plans, HR & Admin), Dr Mallika Joseph (Consultant, TPF), Ms Madhuvanthi Rajkumar (Research Officer).

SSL – Dr Asha Sundaram (Principal SSL), Dr T C Karthikheyan (Associate Professor of Politics and IR).